Weapon Supply From the West Limited, Ukraine Must Save Ammunition (Pict of Illustrations) |
Kofman said Western countries may have reached their limit in terms of arms supplies to Kiev. According to him, it is not in the best interest of the Ukrainian military to wait for time on an "munitions diet", as conditions will soon begin to deteriorate, making a retaliatory strike against Russia more difficult to carry out.
In addition, he said, Russian troops could use the pause to regroup. "And solve some of their personnel problems," he said. He noted that time will be on Kiev's side if Western arms support is not limited. "However, this does not appear to be the case, and the Ukrainian leadership is well aware of this," Kofman said.
Ukraine seems quite concerned about how long they can expect further support, especially from Europe." The military expert went on to say that Kiev's European backers may have already given Ukraine most of the weapons they are prepared to provide.
"Ukrainians are likely to be on some kind of ammunition diet," Kofman said. Kofman concluded that Kiev's ability to reclaim territory seized by Russia ultimately depended on the extent of its Western support. He also acknowledged some minor Russian successes in the southern Donbas, such as in Peski.
He added, however, that the Russian offensive was carried out mostly by the militaries of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as well as by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group.
When asked about a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive to retake the southern city of Kherson, currently held by Russian forces, Kofman pointed out that while Kiev has plenty of personnel on paper. "[However], only a number of units are really trained and equipped for it," he said.